Long-term outcomes of hospitalized SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 patients with and without neurological involvement: 3-year follow-up assessment (preprint)

Background and ObjectivesAcute neurological manifestations are a common complication of acute COVID-19 disease. This study investigated the 3-year outcomes of patients with and without significant neurological manifestations during initial COVID-19 hospitalization. MethodsPatients infected by SARS-CoV-2 between March 1 and April 16, 2020 and hospitalized in the Montefiore Health System in the Bronx, an epicenter of the early pandemic, were included. Follow-up data was captured up to January 23, 2023 (3 years post COVID-19). This cohort consisted of 414 COVID-19 patients with significant neurological manifestations and 1199 propensity-matched COVID- 19 patients without neurological manifestations. Primary outcomes were mortality, stroke, heart attack, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), reinfection, and hospital readmission post-discharge. Secondary outcomes were clinical neuroimaging findings (hemorrhage, active stroke, prior stroke, mass effect, and microhemorrhage, white-matter changes, microvascular disease, and volume loss). Predictive models were used to identify risk factors of mortality post-discharge. ResultsMore patients in the neurological cohort were discharged to acute rehabilitation (10.54% vs 3.68%, p<0.0001), skilled nursing facilities (30.67% vs 20.78%, p=0.0002) and fewer to home (55.27% vs 70.21%, p<0.0001) compared to the matched controls. Incidence of readmission for any medical reason (65.70% vs 60.72%, p=0.036), stroke (6.28% vs 2.34%, p<0.0001), and MACE (20.53% vs 16.51%, p=0.032) was higher in the neurological cohort post-discharge. Neurological patients were more likely to die post-discharge (58 (14.01%) vs 94 (7.84%), p=0.0001) compared to controls (HR=2.346, 95% CI=(1.586, 3.470), p<0.0001). The major causes of death post-discharge were heart disease (14.47%), sepsis (13.82%), influenza and pneumonia (11.18%), COVID-19 (8.55%) and acute respiratory distress syndrome (7.89%). Factors associated with mortality after leaving the hospital were belonging to the neurological cohort (OR=1.802 (1.237, 2.608), p=0.002), discharge disposition (OR=1.508, 95% CI=(1.276, 1.775), p<0.0001), congestive heart failure (OR=2.281 (1.429, 3.593), p=0.0004), higher COVID-19 severity score (OR=1.177 (1.062, 1.304), p=0.002), and older age (OR=1.027 (1.010, 1.044), p=0.002). There were no group differences in gross radiological findings, except the neurological cohort showed significantly more age-adjusted brain volume loss (p<0.05) compared to controls. DiscussionCOVID-19 patients with neurological manifestations have worse long-term outcomes compared to matched controls. These findings raise awareness and the need for closer monitoring and timely interventions for COVID-19 patients with neurological manifestations.

A Novel Severity Score to Predict Inpatient Mortality in COVID-19 patients (preprint)

Introduction: COVID-19 is commonly mild and self-limiting, but in a considerable portion of patients the disease is severe and fatal. Determining which patients are at high risk of severe illness or mortality is essential for appropriate clinical decision making. We propose a novel severity score specifically for COVID-19 to help predict disease severity and mortality. Methods: 4,711 patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection were included. We derived a risk model using the first half of the cohort (n=2,355 patients) by logistic regression and bootstrapping methods. The discriminative power of the risk model was assessed by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC). The severity score was validated in a second half of 2,356 patients. Results: Mortality incidence was 26.4% in the derivation cohort and 22.4% in the validation cohort. A COVID-19 severity score ranging from 0 to 10, consisting of age, oxygen saturation, mean arterial pressure, blood urea nitrogen, C-Reactive protein, and the international normalized ratio was developed. A ROC curve analysis was performed in the derivation cohort achieved an AUC of 0.824 (95% CI 0.814-0.851) and an AUC of 0.798 (95% CI 0.789-0.818) in the validation cohort. Furthermore, based on the risk categorization the probability of mortality was 11.8%, 39% and 78% for patient with low (0-3), moderate (4-6) and high (7-10) COVID-19 severity score. Conclusion: This developed and validated novel COVID-19 severity score will aid physicians in predicting mortality during surge periods.